Integrative analysis of clinical and epigenetic biomarkers of mortality

Abstract DNA methylation (DNAm) has been reported to be associated with many diseases and mortality. We hypothesized that the integration of DNAm with clinical risk factors would improve mortality prediction.We performed an epigenome-wide association study of whole blood DNAm in relation to mortality in 15 cohorts (n=15,013). During a mean follow-up of 10 years, there were 4314 deaths from all-causes including 1235 cardiovascular disease (CVD) deaths and 868 cancer deaths. Ancestry-stratified meta-analysis of all-cause mortality identified 163 CpGs in European ancestry (EA) and 17 in African ancestry (AA) participants at P <1x10 -7 , of which 41 (EA) and 16 (AA) were also associated with CVD death, and 15 (EA) and 9 (AA) with cancer death. We built DNAm-based prediction models for all-cause mortality that predicted mortality risk independent of clinical risk factors. The mortality prediction model trained by integrating DNAm with clinical risk factors showed a substantial improvement in prediction of cancer death with 11% and 5% increase in the C-index in internal and external replications, compared with the model trained by clinical risk factors alone. Mendelian randomization identified 15 CpGs in relation to longevity, CVD, or cancer risk. For example, cg06885782 (in KCNQ4 ) was positively associated with risk for prostate cancer (Beta=1.2, P MR =4.1x10 -4 ), and negatively associated with longevity (Beta=-1.9, P MR =0.02). Pathway analysis revealed that genes associated with mortality-related CpGs are enriched for immune and cancer related pathways. We identified replicable DNAm signatures of mortality and demonstrated the potential utility of CpGs as informative biomarkers for prediction of mortality risk.